New research using satellite images and artificial intelligence could help predict deadly wildfires and save lives, according to scientists involved in the work.
“Over the last about 50 years, fire science has been based on an assumption that if we know how dry the weather is, we can tell how dry the forests are,” Krishna Rao, one of the study’s authors and a doctoral student in Earth system science at Stanford University, told weather.com in a phone interview Tuesday.
The new study, published in the most recent issue of the journal Remote Sensing of Environment, instead used newly available technology from the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-1 satellites, deployed in 2015, to track three years’ worth of moisture data from 239 sites across 12 fire-prone western U.S. states. The data was run through an artificial intelligence system designed to recognize patterns that could indicate high fire danger.
Much of those same areas are at risk for above-average wildfire activity this summer, according to the most recent outlook from the National Interagency Fire Center.
Fire predictions are largely based on how much fuel – or dry vegetation – is present and how dry the landscape is. But that information is hard to gather fast enough on a large scale, according to a news release from Stanford.
“One of our big breakthroughs was to look at a newer set of satellites that are using much longer wavelengths, which allows the observations to be sensitive to water much deeper into the forest canopy and be directly representative of the fuel moisture content,” Alexandra Konings, senior author on the study and ecohydrologist at Stanford University, said in the release.
As climate and weather patterns change, some plants are adapting to react differently to drought, which could affect traditional methods of predicting wildfires, Rao added.
“We have already seen climate change,” he told weather.com. “It is not a hypothetical scenario.”
A warmer and drier climate is expected to lead to more frequent and more intense wildfires near populated areas, according to NOAA.
(Krishna Rao)
Rao said more research is still needed to determine exactly how accurate the models are, including comparing them to past fires.
“One of the biggest things that’s still unanswered is how helpful is it to know true forest dryness … no one is in a position to say that this will matter more than knowing the weather and winds,” Rao said.
But he hopes that the models could one day be used to more accurately predict the timing and location of deadly wildfires like the 2018 Camp Fire in Paradise, California, which was fueled by hot, dry weather and killed at least 86 people.
“Even though we are able to predict wildfire danger on a macro scale, we still are not doing a good job with that,” Rao said. “People unfortunately still die due to wildfires … so what it means is that we are not able to assess the risk in a timely manner such that we could move people to safety and possibly also avoid some destruction to property.”
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
Original post: https://weather.com/safety/wildfires/news/2020-06-02-new-research-could-help-predict-wildfires
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