Four Rules To Guide Expectations Of Artificial Intelligence

Is the world too chaotic for any technology to control? Is technology revealing that things are even more chaotic and uncontrollable than first thought? Artificial intelligence, machine learning and related technologies may be  underscoring a realization Albert Einstein had many decades ago: “The more I learn, the more I realize how much I don’t know.”

When it comes to employing the latest analytics in enterprises and beyond, even the best technology — predictive algorithms, artificial intelligence — can’t explain, and even reveal, the complexity and interactions that shape events and trends.  That’s the word from Harvard University’s David Weinberger who explains, in his latest book, how AI, big data, science and the internet are all revealing a fundamental truth: things are more complex and unpredictable than we’ve allowed ourselves to see.

“Our unstated contract with the universe has been if we work hard enough and think clearly enough, the universe will yield its secrets, for the universe is knowable, and thus at least somewhat pliable to our will,” Weinberger writes in Everyday Chaos: Technology, Complexity, and How We’re Thriving in a New World of Possibility. “But now that our tools, especially machine learning and the internet, are bringing home to us the immensity of the data and information around us, we’re beginning to accept that the true complexity of the world far outstrips the laws and models we devise to explain it.”

The irony is the systems we are creating to make some sense of the world — such as machine learning and deep learning — are only creating more mystery. To illustrate this phenomenon, Weinberger points to Deep Patient, an AI program developed by Mount Sinai Hospital in New York in 2015. Deep Patient was fed medical records of 700,000 patients as jumbled data, with no framework to organize it or any instructions as to how the data should be used. Yet, even with just three incomplete pieces to analyze, Deep Patient is able to diagnose the likelihood of patients developing some diseases more accurately than doctors.

There’s only one catch to Deep Patient’s success– no one knows why or how it comes to its conclusions. “The number and complexity of contextual variables mean that Deep Patient simply cannot always explain its diagnoses as a conceptual model that its human keepers can understand,” Weinberger says.

The bottom line, Weinberger says, is that success with AI and automation stems from accepting and leveraging results delivered, and not trying to decipher the explanations behind the data fed into these systems. If A/B testing shows text on a website results in more traffic than a photo placement, go with it.

Weinberger outlines four rules of the road that should guide our expectations when it comes to machine learning and deep learning applications:

  • Prioritize the workflow of AI systems, but leave it to AI to determine how results are produced.  Today’s deep learning models “are not created by humans, at least not directly. Humans choose the data and feed it in, humans head the system toward a goal, and humans can intercede to tune the weights and outcomes. But humans do not necessarily tell the machine what features to look for. Because the models deep learning may come up with are not based on the models we have constructed for ourselves, they can be opaque to us.”
  • Throw away the old models that shaped expectations. “Deep learning models are not generated premised on simplified principles, and there’s no reason to think they are always gong to produce them.”
  • We shouldn’t be expected to understand what underlies AI decisions. “Deep learning systems do not have to simplify the world to what humans can understand,” Weinberger says. “Our old, simplified models were nothing more than the rough guess of a couple of pounds of brains trying to understand a realm in which everything is connected to, and influenced by, everything.”
  • Ultimately, it’s about the data. “Everything connected to everything means that machine learning’s model can constantly change. Changes in machine learning models can occur simply by retraining them on new data. indeed, some systems learn continuously.”

A question that comes out of this, of course, is whether to trust AI output when bias needs to be questioned or analyzed. While Weinberger’s book does not tackle the issues of human bias being baked into AI algorithms head-on — that is the subject of entire books in and of themselves — he points out that human biases find their way into results, which illustrate our own failings.  People seek explicability “to prevent AI from making our biased culture and systems even worse than they were before AI. Keeping AI from repeating, amplifying and enforcing existing prejudices is a huge and hugely important challenge.”

No matter how automated our decision-making becomes, critical thinking — human critical thinking — is still needed to run businesses and institutions. Humans need to be able to override or question the output of AI systems, especially if the process is opaque.  This is a critical skill that needs to part of every job, every training program and every course curriculum from now on.


Original post:

33 comentários em “Four Rules To Guide Expectations Of Artificial Intelligence

  1. My partner and I stumbled over here from a different page and thought I should check
    things out. I like what I see so now i am following you.
    Look forward to looking over your web page repeatedly.

  2. You’ve made some decent points there. I checked on the net for additional information about the issue and found most people will go along with your views on this web site.

  3. Everything is very open with a clear clarification of the challenges.
    It was definitely informative. Your site is very useful.
    Thank you for sharing!

  4. Everything posted made a great deal of sense. However,
    what about this? what if you added a little content?
    I am not suggesting your information is not solid, but what if you added a headline that makes people want more?
    I mean Four Rules To Guide Expectations Of Artificial
    Intelligence – Adolfo Eliazàt – Artificial Intelligence – AI News
    is kinda boring. You might look at Yahoo’s front page and watch how they write post headlines to get viewers to click.
    You might add a video or a picture or two to get people excited about
    everything’ve written. In my opinion, it would bring
    your posts a little bit more interesting.

  5. I am the owner of JustCBD company ( and am trying to expand my wholesale side of business. I really hope that anybody at targetdomain give me some advice ! I thought that the most suitable way to accomplish this would be to connect to vape shops and cbd retailers. I was hoping if anybody could recommend a trustworthy site where I can purchase Vape Shop Business Mailing List I am already considering, and On the fence which one would be the most suitable choice and would appreciate any advice on this. Or would it be simpler for me to scrape my own leads? Ideas?

  6. I am the business owner of JustCBD Store company ( and I’m presently aiming to grow my wholesale side of company. I am hoping anybody at targetdomain is able to provide some guidance ! I considered that the most suitable way to accomplish this would be to talk to vape shops and cbd retail stores. I was really hoping if someone could suggest a reputable site where I can get Vape Shop B2B Data I am currently considering, and Not sure which one would be the most ideal selection and would appreciate any support on this. Or would it be simpler for me to scrape my own leads? Suggestions?

  7. Howdy! I could have sworn I’ve been to this web site before but after looking at a few of the articles I realized it’s new to me. Anyhow, I’m certainly pleased I stumbled upon it and I’ll be book-marking it and checking back frequently!

  8. I’m very pleased to uncover this site. I need to to thank you for ones time for this wonderful read!! I definitely loved every little bit of it and i also have you book-marked to check out new stuff in your site.

  9. Good post. I learn something new and challenging on blogs I stumbleupon on a daily basis. It will always be exciting to read content from other writers and practice something from their websites.

  10. May I simply say what a relief to uncover somebody that genuinely knows what they are discussing on the net. You definitely know how to bring a problem to light and make it important. More and more people ought to read this and understand this side of your story. I was surprised that you’re not more popular given that you most certainly have the gift.

  11. The next time I read a blog, I hope that it doesn’t disappoint me just as much as this particular one. I mean, I know it was my choice to read through, but I actually thought you’d have something interesting to say. All I hear is a bunch of moaning about something you could possibly fix if you were not too busy searching for attention.

  12. I simply want to mention I’m very new to blogging and site-building and really savored this web-site. Most likely I’m likely to bookmark your website . You really have good articles. Kudos for sharing with us your website page.

  13. Hi there! This article could not be written any better! Looking at this post reminds me of my previous roommate! He always kept talking about this. I’ll forward this article to him. Pretty sure he’ll have a very good read. I appreciate you for sharing!

  14. Your style is very unique in comparison to other people I have read stuff from. Thanks for posting when you’ve got the opportunity, Guess I’ll just bookmark this site.

  15. Can I simply say what a relief to discover a person that actually knows what they’re talking about over the internet. You certainly know how to bring a problem to light and make it important. More and more people need to check this out and understand this side of your story. It’s surprising you aren’t more popular since you definitely have the gift.

  16. May I simply just say what a relief to discover an individual who truly knows what they are talking about on the web. You actually know how to bring a problem to light and make it important. A lot more people have to check this out and understand this side of the story. I was surprised that you’re not more popular since you surely possess the gift.

  17. An impressive share! I have just forwarded this onto a colleague who has been conducting a little homework on this. And he in fact bought me breakfast simply because I found it for him… lol. So let me reword this…. Thank YOU for the meal!! But yeah, thanks for spending some time to talk about this matter here on your web page.

  18. Achieving your fitness goals doesn’t have to require a certified personal trainer or an expensive gym memberships, especially if you have the budget and the space to consider practically every workout machine in the market.

  19. I have to thank you for the efforts you have put in writing this website. I am hoping to check out the same high-grade content from you later on as well. In fact, your creative writing abilities has motivated me to get my own, personal website now 😉

  20. Hi, I do think this is a great web site. I stumbledupon it 😉 I am going to revisit once again since I bookmarked it. Money and freedom is the greatest way to change, may you be rich and continue to help other people.

  21. I’m amazed, I have to admit. Rarely do I encounter a blog that’s both equally educative and entertaining, and let me tell you, you have hit the nail on the head. The problem is something which too few people are speaking intelligently about. I’m very happy I found this during my search for something relating to this.

  22. I’m impressed, I have to admit. Seldom do I encounter a blog that’s both educative and interesting, and without a doubt, you’ve hit the nail on the head. The problem is something which too few people are speaking intelligently about. Now i’m very happy that I came across this during my hunt for something concerning this.

  23. I was very pleased to find this page. I want to to thank you for ones time due to this fantastic read!! I definitely appreciated every part of it and i also have you bookmarked to look at new stuff on your web site.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *